Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
